Aug 20 2009

Not much happened aside of AIG momentum-fuelled run. August is slowly winding down...

Session Start: Thu Aug 20 01:23:07 2009

[08:50] {Threei} INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 576K V 550KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 6.241M V 6.215ME

[08:50] {Threei} - Prior jobless claims revised from 558K to 561K

[08:50] {Threei} - Prior Continuing Claims revised from 6.202M to 6.239M

[08:51] {nemo} that should dampen things a bit

[08:52] {Threei} caused whole 10 points NQ drop

[08:52] {nemo} august somnolence

[09:06] {fernp} good morning everybody

[09:06] {nemo} another optimist

[09:07] {fernp} sorry

[09:07] {nemo} just don't do it again

[09:07] {Threei} fern :)

[09:08] {magoo} morning

[09:08] {nemo} Magus :)

[09:08] {Threei} magoo :)

[09:09] {cosmo} PTEM might heal

[09:09] {dino} gm all

[09:09] {cosmo} watch 20 action

[09:09] {dino} shld blood

[09:09] {nemo} bad earnings

[09:09] {nemo} employment ba too

[09:09] {nemo} damn sheep

[09:09] {Threei} dino :)

[09:10] {cosmo} ba ba nemo

[09:12] {magoo} what u watching vad?

[09:12] {nemo} coma

[09:12] {nemo} oops...sorry...that comes later

[09:14] {Threei} AXL

[09:14] {Threei} BAC

[09:14] {cosmo} PETM 20 test coming

[09:14] {Threei} don't have anything constructive yet

[09:20] {magoo} hurn too vad

[09:21] {Threei} yeah...

[09:27] {magoo} shld vad crushed

[09:27] {nemo} [09:09] {dino} shld blood

[09:31] {cosmo} PETM went stupid on me

[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup: BAC 17 break

[09:34] {Threei} if stays above 16.90

[09:35] {magoo} in

[09:35] {magoo} pretty g gopod pllbk hurn

[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup: AXL .65 if stays above .50

[09:36] {magoo} aig rtk

[09:38] {Threei} AIG another squeeze is on

[09:38] {magoo} big pllbk edap

[09:40] {dino} shld v sm l .00

[09:40] {Threei} Preview: Q2 US Mortgage Delinquencies due out at 10amET

[09:40] {Threei} **no estimate, prior quarter (Q1) was 9.12%

[09:42] {dino} s topped

[09:45] {Threei} AXL is reestablshed

[09:45] {Threei} risky one

[09:47] {Threei} let's modify it

[09:47] {Threei} .50 break if stays above .40

[09:47] {magoo} how much u looking for?

[09:51] {magoo} aig hits 30

[09:51] {nemo} wonder what the news is this time

[09:52] {magoo} ceo says will be avble pay bk govt tarp i heardr

[09:52] {nemo} huh?

[09:53] {Threei} BAC stop to .94

[09:54] {magoo} hurn losing

[09:55] {dino} last try shld sm .00

[10:00] {Threei} AUG PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX: 4.2 V -2.0E

[10:00] {Threei} *JULY LEADING INDICATORS: 0.6% V 0.7%E

[10:00] {dino} out shld .40, +1.40

[10:00] {Threei} *(US) Q2 MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES: 9.24% V 9.12% PRIOR (Q1); highest reading on record

[10:01] {dino} toughb crrrooowwwwdddddd

[10:01] {nemo} whatsa' matter Dino?

[10:01] {larisa} nice dino :)

[10:01] {Threei} we lost our breath dino... envy, ya know

[10:02] {dino} ty larisa, you're the best

[10:02] {larisa} ty :)

[10:02] {nemo} oh, yeah, I was writing "are you strapped in" as your comment came across...thought you might be in for a rocket ride

[10:03] {dino} lol

[10:03] {nemo} RIMM broke nice out of 74.35

[10:09] {Threei} Long Setup: AIG .10 break half lot

[10:09] {Threei} if stays above .95

[10:10] {Threei} no worky

[10:11] {nemo} half lot good idea

[10:12] {Threei} IRBT Hearing awarded $35.3M order from US Army yesterday (11.47, +0.13, 1.15%)

[10:13] {fernp} HIG breaking hod

[10:17] {magoo} HURN read vad?

[10:18] {Threei} .50 break

[10:18] {magoo} AIG setts for next leg

[10:18] {Threei} yeah

[10:18] {Threei} that's what I had in mind with that .10 break

[10:19] {nemo} market shaking off the bad news today

[10:22] {magoo} it trades like a donkey vad..it takes critical levels and fails

[10:23] {dino} heeehaw

[10:24] {nemo} what Dino?

[10:24] {dino} donkey

[10:24] {nemo} as in?

[10:24] {Threei} lol

[10:24] {dino} magoo above (or another name for him)\

[10:25] {nemo} yeah...the analogy escapes me...what critical levels do donkey's reach and then fail?

[10:25] {cosmo} PETM hod = 20 fwiw

[10:28] {dino} lod 19.50

[10:28] {magoo} sigh..trying to teach u guys

[10:28] {dino} played it afterhours last night

[10:29] {nemo} huh? and huh?

[10:31] {magoo} 31 is coming RISKY

[10:31] {magoo} 32

[10:31] {nemo} what stock mags?

[10:32] {magoo} AIG

[10:32] {magoo} but its not easy

[10:32] {nemo} it's at 30.36, you think it's going to 32.00

[10:32] {magoo} 31

[10:32] {magoo} then 32 today

[10:32] {dino} don't get him started nemo

[10:33] {magoo} concur vad?

[10:33] {nemo} that was an earnest question

[10:33] {magoo} 31 soon

[10:33] {Threei} 31 yes

[10:33] {Threei} 32 - I'd havbe to reevaluate when we get there

[10:33] {nemo} I wasn't being my usual obnoxiously patronizing self

[10:33] {dino} 31 then 12 in month

[10:34] {magoo} i dont care about that

[10:34] {magoo} this is $$

[10:35] {magoo} out .93 TY vad

[10:35] {magoo} another point

[10:36] {Threei} here is 31

[10:36] {Threei} lol, BAC

[10:36] {fernp} and BAC 1:1

[10:36] {Threei} 1:1, half out

[10:36] {Threei} sat long enough for us to foreget qwe had it

[10:38] {magoo} 32 coming

[10:38] {Threei} yep...

[10:38] {Threei} mother of all squeezes

[10:39] {magoo} out here

[10:39] {magoo} another .80

[10:39] {Threei} wtg

[10:39] {magoo} 35 today...no shit

[10:42] {magoo} out again .82

[10:42] {magoo} 4 for 4 on it

[10:42] {Threei} good job

[10:42] {magoo} RISKY..gotta go change underwear

[10:42] {magoo} brb

[10:42] {Threei} things we learn here

[10:43] {magoo} [10:39] {magoo} 35 today...no shit

[10:43] {magoo} [10:39] {&

[10:43] {magoo} problem is it pullsbk hard....but WOW vad, last few days we have MOMOMOMOMOMOMOMOM

[10:44] {magoo} serious runners vad like ole days

[10:44] {Threei} well, with all the doom and gloom spread by wounded bears at the slightest hint of market pullback, no wonder

[10:47] {Threei} mesmerizing

[10:48] {Threei} and no news whatsoever

[10:49] {magoo} out .90 again

[10:49] {magoo} took cross 33

[10:49] {magoo} 34

[10:49] {magoo} now 35

[10:49] {magoo} moght have to revise my target :)

[10:50] {nemo} 40

[10:50] {magoo} 38

[10:50] {Threei} pullback time

[10:50] {Threei} hard one too

[10:52] {magoo} out .79 now

[10:52] {Threei} wow... for a minute T&S and Level 2 had some discrepancy

[10:52] {Threei} don't remember when I saw that on Laser

[10:52] {magoo} like 6 for 6 on it

[10:52] {magoo} GET AWAY HERE

[10:52] {magoo} losing power it feels

[10:53] {magoo} [10:39] {magoo} 35 today...no shit

[10:53] {Threei} when pullback comes it will be just as devastating for bulls as runup was/is for bears

[10:53] {nemo} volume has been dropping since 9:50

[10:53] {magoo} right vad, drop of 3 points

[10:54] {magoo} dont like it here long

[10:54] {magoo} pushing my luck

[10:54] {Threei} relax... you did great on it,

[10:54] {fernp} out HIG +.12

[10:54] {Threei} now let it rest a bit,

[10:54] {fernp} a bit faster than bac but not much more

[10:54] {Threei} then do this:

[10:54] {nemo} that's an understatement...ow...that hurt

[10:55] {Threei} when you feel it finished churning and shaking

[10:55] {Threei} and ready to resume

[10:55] {nemo} Hey Dino, Mags buying drinks tonight

[10:55] {Threei} skip first play you see,

[10:55] {Threei} it's most likely false attempt,

[10:55] {Threei} take second but with half shares

[10:55] {magoo} thanx..thats good advice

[10:55] {Threei} and trade it as you see fit with half of what you did in these 6 plays

[10:55] {magoo} cant win everyone

[10:56] {Threei} one biggest mistake you can make now is:

[10:56] {magoo} really got lucky

[10:56] {Threei} take the play, see it going against you, double down

[10:56] {Threei} this is what can destroy your winnings

[10:56] {magoo} yea..triple down..blow all stops lose like 5k OUCH

[10:56] {Threei} yup

[10:56] {Threei} happens to many after such winning streak,

[10:57] {Threei} caused by feeling that you know this stock now,

[10:57] {magoo} unfortunately...ive experienced that scenario

[10:57] {Threei} own it

[10:57] {Threei} can't lose on it

[10:57] {Threei} No stock is ever your friend

[10:57] {Threei} nor enemy for that matter

[10:57] {nemo} damn rimm C&H

[10:57] {Threei} they have no idea you exist

[10:59] {magoo} ive left following rimm last 3 sessions..ive been way off on it..

[10:59] {nemo} it's holding with q pullback

[11:00] {Threei} US Treasury to sell $42B 2-year notes, $39B 5-year notes, and $29B in 7-year notes

[11:06] {Threei} AIG pace picks up again

[11:13] {_phreeboy} what would you say AIG would have to hold to continue up?

[11:14] {cosmo} PETM test ....again

[11:14] {magoo} its not that kind of stok

[11:14] {Threei} I don't think there are technicals to AIG

[11:14] {magoo} it could easily red bar down to 31

[11:14] {nemo} volume has disappeare

[11:14] {Threei} it's a momo runner

[11:14] {Threei} they live in parallel universe

[11:19] {Threei} US CFTC and UK's FSA to enhance regulatory cooperation for oversight of energy futures markets

[11:19] {Threei} - the agencies will share regulations and disciplinary notices to increase cross border monitoring of oil markets

[11:21] {Threei} laugh all you want but BAC is coming on 1:2

[11:23] {fernp} I sold my BACs some centuries ago :)

[11:23] {Threei} I sold half

[11:23] {fernp} I know

[11:24] {Threei} here goes AIG murdering those who overstayed their welcome

[11:35] {cosmo} PETM test ....20 gonna melt at some point....

[11:39] {cosmo} people gotta feed their pets, ya know...

[11:44] {Threei} or not

[11:45] {cosmo} a big decision for us all

[11:45] {cosmo} the day is young

[11:45] {nemo} fas triang

[11:45] {nemo} trying

[11:46] {cosmo} time to walk the dogs

[11:55] {nemo} fas succeeded

[12:01] {Threei} hmmm

[12:01] {Threei} ese may have been hiding something from us

[12:01] {Threei} [ESE] Announces Contract Award for Its Thermoforming Business

[12:02] {Threei} and we thought he was a drummer?

[12:08] {nemo} http://www.marketwatch.com/story/aig-jumps-as-new-benmosche-strategy-fuels-hope-2009-08-20?siteid=rss&rss=1

[12:12] {wulff} HURN seems down for the count

[12:14] {Threei} yeah, watching it

[12:14] {Threei} was downgraded just now

[12:14] {wulff} carried it overnight, but out earlier

[12:15] {Threei} by no-name firm

[12:15] {wulff} the three shmoes

[12:16] {Threei} two

[12:16] {Threei} HURN Update: Shares cut to Neutral from Outperform at a boutique firm (Boenning & Scattergood) (19.48, +0.05, 0.26%)

[12:16] {Threei} Boenning & Scattergood count for two shmoes, right?

[12:16] {wulff} were they not cut pretty badly already?

[12:17] {Threei} well... there is always "more down"...

[12:23] {magoo} IGK crusheed vad

[12:24] {magoo} WOW

[12:24] {Threei} way too thin

[12:24] {magoo} someone KICXK VAD

[12:25] {Threei} why would you want to do that

[12:37] {dino} news igk?

[12:37] {Threei} the symbol is not in my newsfeed

[12:38] {Threei} can't find out

[12:39] {dino} nothing on yahoo

[12:43] {nemo} how's the coma vad?

[12:44] {nemo} that good...

[12:45] {nemo} fas testing top of range

[12:45] {Threei} sigh

[12:46] {dino} aef?

[12:47] {dino} had a nice nap

[12:49] {dino} aef dropping fast

[12:50] {nemo} you short it?

[12:50] {dino} no want long at .20

[12:51] {dino} not going to get there tho

[12:54] {magoo} vad AIG trying it seems

[12:55] {dino} aef sm l .83

[12:55] {nemo} indexes and fas pulling back

[12:59] {Threei} yes mags... but it's absolute 50/50

[13:03] {dino} stopped aef

[13:05] {Threei} you do know who is on TV, right?

[13:07] {nemo} Schwarzenegger

[13:08] {Threei} you wish

[13:08] {nemo} nah, not really

[13:13] {nemo} aig going fro 32

[13:13] {nemo} wow

[13:13] {nemo} got whiplash on that one

[13:14] {Threei} (US) President Obama: Affirms position on public health insurance option is 'unchanged,' calls option "a good idea, but not the only aspect of reform" - radio interview

[13:14] {Threei} - Reminder: Back on 8/17 White House Press Sec Gibbs said Obama prefers government health-insurance option. Over the weekend that the Obama administration signaled that it was ready to abandon the idea of giving Americans the option of government-run insurance as part of a new health care system.

[13:27] {nemo} if aig doesn't stop @ 32.05 could be another good drop

[13:34] {fernp} HIG double bottom?

[13:35] {Threei} can't tell...

[13:36] {nemo} Hig's riding the 200 period moving average right now

[13:41] {nemo} aig dropped to r3

[14:01] {dino} aef rinsed

[14:03] {nemo} gotta' go... c u 2 maw row

[14:04] {fernp} bye nemo

[14:05] {Threei} take care nemo

[14:13] {magoo} vad AIG trying

[14:34] {_phreeboy} from this point what are the chances of AIG going long (own it and considering holding overnight)?

[14:35] {Threei} 50/50

[14:35] {Threei} total gambling

[14:35] {Threei} this thing can open at 40 and at 15 tomorrow with the same odds amd easiness

[14:36] {Threei} feel like in casino?

[14:37] {Threei} SBUX WSJ: Company to begin charging approx $0.25 more for certain drinks, less for others; effective Thursday in certain cities

[14:37] {Threei} - Customers to pay more for larger and complex drinks; less for smaller and more basic drinks

[14:37] {_phreeboy} better odds at craps with right hedge bets

[14:37] {Threei} there you go

[14:37] {Threei} I can't imagine why you would want to take it overnight - other than pure gambling

[14:38] {Threei} volatility is extreme, gaps can be huge

[14:38] {Threei} trading is about risk control

[14:38] {Threei} and you give up any resemblense of it by taking home such monster

[14:41] {Threei} how's this for volatility?

[14:43] {_phreeboy} do you use trend lines?

[14:43] {Threei} yes

[14:45] {fernp} BAC bounce?

[14:45] {Threei} I doubt it

[14:45] {Threei} gotta give them more room to fall before bounces become likely

[14:46] {Threei} this is that interim stage, you know...

[14:46] {Threei} when each leg down seems to be good enough for bounce

[14:46] {fernp} yes only five cents drop

[14:46] {Threei} but in reality leads to endless stops

[14:46] {Threei} jump in too early a few times,

[14:46] {Threei} and those stops however well controlled, eliminate all you made before

[14:49] {fernp} agree

[14:50] {fernp} Unfortunately, I have experienced many times what you're saying

[14:50] {dino} igk

[14:51] {dino} sm l .51 wide, gappy

[15:08] {Threei} US) US House Speaker Pelosi: Cannot pass a bill in the House that is lacking a public option

[15:08] {Threei} - Note: Pelosi in the past has noted that a public option has strong support

[15:16] {Threei} breakout or fizzle out?

[15:17] {Threei} you gotta give it to the market... what a perfection in finding the way to frustrate those who follow "normal" logic

[15:17] {Threei} who didn't "know for sure" the uptrend has ended

[15:44] {fernp} have a nice evening. see u tomorrow

[15:44] {Threei} take care fern

[15:56] {Threei} AIG dump on the close

[15:56] {Threei} doesn't really mean much

[15:56] {Threei} cxan be justr prfit taking

[15:56] {wulff} Tried to grab a RIMM long here but not in the mood

[15:56] {Threei} only better typed

[15:56] {wulff} teh stock that is

[15:56] {wulff} the

[15:56] {Threei} too close to close

[15:57] {wulff} entered the 3:30 run

[15:57] {Threei} okay guys... August is almost over

[15:57] {Threei} thank you all

[15:57] {Threei} have a good evening

[15:57] {larisa} see you :)

[15:57] {Threei} see you tomorrow

[15:58] {wulff} LAter all

[16:01] {magoo} ty vad everyone