RealityTrader Trading Log

Monday, February 23, 2009

Two sizeable plays covered a few small stops and made the day positive: RIMM long early in the day and CAT short that took a few hours to develop. Nothing outstanding but positive is positive. This selling is probably far from over, so might just as well get used to being very conservative in expectations.

Session Time: Mon Feb 23 00:00:00 2009

[07:36] {nemo} Only you and me Vad...maybe only me...
[08:00] {magoo} morning
[08:01] {nemo} Hi Mags...
[08:02] {magoo} captjn nemo:)
[08:04] {nemo} another 7 1/2 months until hunting season
[08:04] {magoo} some yrs i do spring bear
[08:05] {nemo} I only hunt what I eat...bear isn't one of my favorites
[08:05] {nemo} wish we had caribou around here...meat is great
[08:07] {magoo} wonder where everyone is?
[08:08] {nemo} Yeah...I was thinking the same thing...not usually this dead on a monday...the German contingent just showed up
[08:08] {nemo} Tag herrn K...warum so spaet?
[08:09] {KSystems} morning :)
[08:19] {Threei}  Good morning
[08:20] {nemo} Grand Poobah :)
[08:23] {Threei}  BAC and C are happy
[08:23] {Threei}  well, if these prices an be called happiness at all
[08:23] {nemo} twice is twice
[08:24] {nemo} fas decided to take off
[08:24] {Threei}  NCX
[08:24] {Threei}  IPIC ENTERED AGREEMENT FOR ALL CASH ACQUISITION AT $6/SHR
[08:27] {Threei}  (US) US TREASURY AND FEDERAL RESERVE INTEND TO BEGIN STRESS TESTING ON FEB 25, JOINTLY STATE THAT THE US GOVT STANDS FIRMLY BEHIND THE BANKING SYSTEM
[08:27] {Threei}  - State that US banks remain well capitalized, regulators determined to preserve the viability of "systemically important financial institutions."
[08:27] {Threei}  - Banks that are found to require more capital can turn to private sources first and the govt second.
[08:27] {Threei}  - Notes that banks should remain in private hands.
[08:28] {Threei}  - US capital would be coverted into common equity only as needed.
[08:28] {Threei}  - Statement makes no mention of particular banking institutions.
[08:28] {Threei}  - Reminder: On 2/22 the NYT reported that the US government's stress tests for the 20 largest banks are expected to begin this week and take several weeks. The stress tests will use computer run "what if" situations to estimate what would happen to each bank under Depression like conditions, with unemployment rising to 10-12% or home prices declining 20% further
[08:28] {nemo} They need a stress test for that?
[08:37] {Threei}  PALM
[08:37] {Threei}  HEARING SHARES RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD AT DEUTSCHE BANK, PRICE TARGET $10
[08:37] {Threei}  where did all the doom and gloom of the last week go
[08:38] {cujo} good morning
[08:38] {Threei}  cujo :)
[08:38] {nemo} market's are bi-polar manic depressive
[08:38] {larisa} good morning :)
[08:38] {nemo} Larisa :)
[08:39] {Threei}  larisa :)
[08:39] {larisa} nemo, threei :)
[08:41] {Threei}  BAC and FAS are above Fri high
[08:48] {magoo} vad..any news RIMM AASPL?
[08:48] {magoo} AAPL
[08:51] {Threei}  no
[08:52] {nemo} C&H on FAS?
[08:53] {Threei}  so far just a cup, and not complete
[08:54] {nemo} I see cup 7:10 to 8:20 and handle between 8:20 to now
[08:56] {Threei}  my chart starts at 8
[08:57] {nemo} just sent it email
[08:58] {Threei}  yeah
[08:58] {Threei}  without normal and with limited particpation that early, patterns are less reliablevolume premarket
[08:58] {nemo} thought you might say that...discretion is the better part of valor
[08:59] {nemo} Having said that...FAS has traded almost 2 million this morning
[09:00] {Onix} gm all
[09:00] {Threei}  Onix :)
[09:05] {Threei}  (US) SENATE MAJORITY LEADER REID (D): NO NEED TO TALK ABOUT BANK NATIONALIZATION
[09:05] {Threei}  ummm
[09:05] {Threei}  no need to do it? Or no need to talk?
[09:05] {cosmo} i didn't know they wer gonna do that..
[09:06] {cosmo} .... 'talk'
[09:07] {Threei}  lol
[09:09] {dino} gm all
[09:09] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:14] {cosmo} DRYS up
[09:14] {pita} gm all ye seekers of truth, justice .......  and money!
[09:15] {Threei}  pita :)
[09:15] {buyemsellem} eh, just money
[09:15] {buyemsellem} gm
[09:15] {Threei}  byem :)
[09:16] {Threei}  08:17am Baltic Dry Bulk Index -0.7%, first decline in 5 days
[09:16] {Threei}  BAC sharp drop
[09:16] {Threei}  that;s probably how they are going to tarde near temr
[09:16] {cujo} Vad, any thoughts on a 40 RIMM break?
[09:16] {Threei}  each word about nationalisation is going to send them up and dow
[09:17] {Threei}  I'd refrain from it for now
[09:17] {Threei}  see, none of them trades on their own at this moment,
[09:17] {Threei}  they all react on banking sector
[09:17] {Threei}  and banking sector rects on every word from high above
[09:17] {cujo} got it.  following the banks.
[09:18] {Threei}  rather, following the market which follows the banks
[09:18] {fernp} Hello everybody
[09:18] {Threei}  fern :)
[09:18] {Threei}  that's important distinction
[09:18] {cujo} got ya. 
[09:18] {Threei}  because at some point market will again disconnect from financials
[09:18] {Threei}  to a degree at least
[09:19] {Threei}  and because this additional link inserted means reaction is a bit muted
[09:19] {Threei}  possibly delayed
[09:20] {Threei}  while market is focused on financials, it's about general flow of the money in the market,
[09:20] {Threei}  but when market starts compartmentalizing financials, it's going to be about redistribution between sectors
[09:24] {Threei}  keeping an eye on PLD
[09:25] {Threei}  nice daily
[09:25] {Threei}  with any market help has a chance for a serious move
[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  PLD  7.10 break
[09:32] {ese} now I know how dino feels....god morning
[09:32] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:32] {Threei}  6.95 invalidating
[09:34] {ese} L uaua .04
[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  DRYS  4.26
[09:34] {Threei}  stop under .15
[09:34] {Threei}  PLD invalidated as break
[09:35] {ese} crap no i'm not....sorry  it didn't my order
[09:35] {ese} thought i was in
[09:35] {cujo} in DRYS .27
[09:35] {ese} bstop  uaua.20 1/2
[09:36] {ese} L uaua.22
[09:36] {Threei}  let's trail DRYS stop under .20
[09:38] {Threei}  wow UAUA
[09:38] {Threei}  nice find ese
[09:38] {Threei}  06:09am [UAUA] BofA/Merrill Lynch Raised UAUA to Buy from Neutral, price target: $10
[09:38] {ese} out uauaworkin well
[09:39] {ese} i'm not out....weird morning
[09:39] {ese} now i'm out  uaua  .42 +.20 on a 1/2
[09:43] {Threei}  CECO looks heroic again
[09:43] {cujo} stopped
[09:43] {Threei}  out DRYS
[09:44] {Onix} stopped
[09:44] {nemo} Monday morning :(
[09:45] {Threei}  OPEL UNIT: FEBRUARY HAS BEEN BEST MEET MONTH IN 5-YRS FOR VEHICLE ORDERS
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .50 if stays above .30
[09:49] {nemo} invalimadated?
[09:49] {Threei}  for now
[09:50] {nemo} Turned int a "hurry up and wait" open
[09:50] {Threei}  serious selling on AAPL
[09:50] {nemo} Jobs must be dying
[09:51] {dino}   watching vz, mcd
[09:51] {dino} lphi too
[09:52] {wulff} you like USO here
[09:52] {wulff} ?
[09:52] {Threei}  .60 break, could be
[09:53] {dino} asewi
[09:53] {Threei}  just keep it small, USO can be incredibly volatile
[09:53] {dino} asei i mean
[09:54] {wulff} invalid
[09:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  HIG  .50 break if stays above .35
[09:56] {dino} mco
[09:57] {nemo} why .35?
[09:57] {nemo} support last 15 min
[09:57] {dino} vz sm l .70
[09:59] {ese} ya whats up with that AAPL
[10:00] {Threei}  where did all the premarket giddiness go
[10:00] {wulff} more sellers than buyers
[10:00] {nemo} wullf is going for your title vad...
[10:00] {Threei}  wulff... careful... you are venturing on my territory
[10:01] {wulff} learning from the master
[10:01] {Threei}  I will fight for my title of Captian Obvious tooth and nail
[10:01] {wulff} I have only one tooth, but its sharp
[10:01] {ese} RMBS
[10:02] {Threei}  RMBS RECEIVE POSITIVE RULING IN SUPREME COURTON ROYALTIES, REJECTING FTC RULING
[10:02] {Threei}  REJECTING FTC ATTEMPT TO LIMIT RAMBUS ROYALTIES
[10:03] {wulff} WFC pullback
[10:03] {ese} l rmbs 1/2 .77
[10:04] {dino} es, asei?
[10:04] {dino} 65ish?
[10:05] {dino} last time dji was up over 100, was 02/06
[10:05] {nemo} makin' any predictions dino?
[10:06] {ese} that has potential dino
[10:06] {dino} yeah, in 15 weeks we are at zero on dji, ndx, s/p. start over
[10:10] {ese} out rmbs ..98 +.22
[10:10] {Threei}  RIMM half lot long on pullback into 39, with stop under 38.90
[10:11] {Threei}  good one ese, looked quite nervous
[10:11] {fernp} gj ese
[10:11] {ese} that might have been a little to volitaile for my liking.....worked out but was in too soon
[10:11] {dino} ndx trying to catch up to s/p drop last week
[10:11] {dino} gj es
[10:11] {ese} tks
[10:12] {ese} asei.......man  where to get in is the question
[10:12] {ese} thin thin thin
[10:12] {dino} spready too
[10:12] {dino} needs retest, to see if holds imo
[10:13] {nemo} market slowly dying too
[10:13] {dino} in bear markets, we wait
[10:13] {ese} ya .20 spread most times
[10:13] {dino} mco quite the 3 day beating
[10:13] {nemo} RIMM retesting bottom?
[10:14] {dino} dk
[10:15] {dino} asei lod
[10:15] {nemo} g'nite FAS
[10:17] {Threei}  half out RIMM
[10:17] {Threei}  scalpers take profit
[10:18] {ese} volume really thin on most stocks.....hence the volitility.....man there ain't nothin left to sell on alot of the stuff i follow
[10:18] {dino} asei sm l .21 risky
[10:18] {Threei} Long Setup:  HIG  .81
[10:19] {Threei}  stop .73
[10:19] {Threei}  out RIMM in full
[10:19] {ese} csiq usually a couple of mil by this time not even 170 thou.....no wonder it's being tanked
[10:20] {Threei}  if missed HIG first time, here is second chance
[10:20] {Threei}  gave .80 entry
[10:20] {Threei}  sold RIMM too soon eh
[10:21] {magoo} out rim .74 TY boss
[10:21] {Threei}  nice patience mags
[10:21] {buyemsellem} out .70 rimm
[10:21] {Threei}  wtg guys
[10:22] {Threei}  PPD
[10:22] {Threei}  BARRY MINKOW'S FRAUD DISCOVERY INSTITUTE OUT WITH A NEGATIVE REPORT TITLED "PONZI PLUS PYRAMID EQUALS PRE PAID LEGAL" (TIMING UNCERTAIN)
[10:23] {Threei}  half out HIG
[10:23] {Threei}  scalpers take profit
[10:24] {ese} was tath 67.21 dino?
[10:24] {ese} aesi
[10:25] {dino} y
[10:25] {dino} having trouble getting out of it w/spread
[10:26] {wulff} WFC waiting, tight entry
[10:27] {Threei}  what are you trying to do with it wulff?
[10:28] {wulff} Long on 12 break
[10:29] {Threei}  HIG balance stop to under .80
[10:31] {Threei}  out HIG balance
[10:34] {Threei}  US PRESIDENT OBAMA: US GOVT TO DISSEMINATE APPROX $15B TO STATES TO ASSIST WITH MEDICAID
[10:36] {dino} medicaid=afam, amed i thinl
[10:36] {dino} asei stopped, broken
[10:37] {Threei}  market resumes that dreadful slow slide
[10:37] {Threei}  watching CAT klittle bounce to define the resistance for a stop placement,
[10:38] {Threei}  short .05 breakdown is the idea
[10:38] {Threei}  PRESIDENT OBAMA NAMES EARL DEVANEY AS OVERSEER FOR STIMULUS FUNDS
[10:39] {Threei}  26.02 and 26.03 support from last couple dayts
[10:39] {Threei}  if losing 26, and market continues this drift down, this is bottomless
[10:39] {nemo} making a call MOTO?
[10:39] {Threei}  not a scalp trade for me
[10:40] {cujo} stop?
[10:40] {cujo} on the CAT?
[10:40] {Threei}  above .15 or .20
[10:40] {Threei}  hard to tell which is better
[10:40] {Threei}  both are valid
[10:43] {Threei}  come on kitty kitty
[10:43] {Threei}  lose that 26
[10:45] {Threei} Short Setup: HIG  .50 breakdown half lot
[10:45] {Threei}  stop above .65
[10:47] {dino} asei hits low 65s original gut feel was right
[10:51] {nemo} Well Vad, that's what you get for talkin' nice to the kitty.  Your compassion for your houseguest got you this time
[10:51] {nemo} FD:  I was cat sitting for 4 of them last week
[10:52] {Threei}  didn't get me yet
[10:52] {cujo} mom, kitty bein a di*do...
[10:52] {cujo} any southpark fans out there...?
[10:52] {wulff} si
[10:52] {nemo} kept .20 stop...no southpark for me
[10:52] {Threei}  and if you are uneasy with it, just cover here for a negligible stop
[10:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .75
[10:54] {Threei}  stop will be defined by this pullback
[10:54] {Threei}  want it to be under .60
[10:56] {nemo} lookin' for C&H on RIMM?
[10:56] {Threei}  yes
[10:56] {nemo} ty
[10:56] {nemo} kick cat vad
06[10:57] * nemo hold's cat's head under water
[10:58] {Threei}  RIMM invalidated
06[10:59] * nemo watches air gurgle from CAT's throat
[11:01] {Threei}  amazing how many setups don't trigger today
[11:01] {nemo} How many lives CAT got Vad:
[11:02] {nemo} Think the magoo maneuver worth a try?
[11:02] {dino}  obama's daily speech
[11:02] {magoo} ego-maniac]
[11:03] {nemo} It's part of the job description Mags
[11:03] {nemo} Funny, now CAT's got a double bottom so long??? oy weh
[11:08] {cujo} down kitty kitty
06[11:09] * cujo slaps CAT around a bit with a dead fish
[11:12] {dino} cnbc bragging that c is up 10%, whoopie, .18
[11:13] {Threei}  lol
[11:13] {ese} quiet buying goin on thought TICK +331 TRIN .61.....good market internals
[11:16] {Threei}  CA) CANADIAN PM HARPER: UNCLEAR HOW RECESSIONS WILL END UNTIL THE WORLD FIXES PROBLEMS IN FINANCIAL SECTOR
[11:16] {Threei}  hmmm
[11:16] {cujo} u giving up the title?
[11:16] {Threei}  I like the guy but really, do I need more competition?
[11:16] {nemo} I wouldn't call him competition
[11:16] {nemo} He couldn't hold a blowtorch to you
[11:17] {Threei}  this statement by him shows the potential
[11:18] {nemo} Yeah, but he has speech writers.  Do you think he thought it up?
[11:18] {nemo} You're the real deal
[11:19] {dino} asei big move off lows, may be worth another try
[11:19] {dino} strange day for a monday
[11:20] {Threei}  yeah
[11:25] {nemo} http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akL0whi55dwc
[11:29] {Threei}  yawn
[11:30] {dino} ditto
[11:31] {Threei}  ok CAT
[11:31] {dino} watching mcd, asei for 65ish, mco , and lphi fwiw
[11:31] {Threei}  show us what you are capable of
[11:34] {Threei}  fairtly long consolidation under .15... I guess we can trail stop to .16 now
[11:35] {Threei}  next leg down should take us into 1:1
[11:49] {Threei}  okay... CAT is over 1:1
[11:49] {Threei}  half out .83
[11:49] {Threei}  stop to above b/e
[11:54] {Threei}  planning to cover 1/4 more somewhere closer to .50
[11:54] {Threei}  and see if I can get closer to 25 on the last portion
[11:55] {Threei}  you all fell asleep or there isd anyone breathing still?
[11:55] {cujo} i'm still in
[11:55] {cujo} but yes, fell asleep for a sec
[11:55] {Threei}  covered part?
[11:55] {cujo} yes 2/3
[11:55] {cujo} still live on 1/3
[11:55] {cujo} limit order in at .50
[11:56] {wulff} still in
[11:58] {cujo} you think stop at .88 safe or too close Vad?
[11:59] {Threei}  .91 seems more logical
[11:59] {cujo} ok
[12:01] {Threei}  new low
[12:01] {Threei}  slowly but surely
[12:02] {Threei}  accelerates
[12:02] {Threei}  BAC
[12:02] {Threei}  NY AG FILES MOTION SEEKING THAIN TESTIMONY ON MERRILL BONUSES; AG SAYS BOA INSTRUCTED HIM NOT TO ANSWER
[12:03] {Threei}  lol... CNN headline:
[12:03] {Threei}  president tackles the economy
[12:04] {Threei}  meaning, if he is successful in tackling it, it tumbles down, right?
[12:06] {dino} cnbc. bac up 11%, another whoopie, +.20
[12:06] {Threei}  lol
[12:08] {dino} govt' 40% of c, like thats not nationalization
[12:08] {dino} another 10%+ is coming boys and girls
[12:08] {Threei}  covered 1/4 more CAT
[12:08] {Threei}  +.45
[12:09] {dino} they are wasting our tax money. the fdic is there on the depositors, sieze it and get it over with
[12:09] {dino} ok, my daily rant is over
[12:09] {Threei}  oops
[12:09] {Threei}  I just wanted to join in
[12:18] {wulff} my wife asked me the other day if I was shorting stocks.
[12:18] {wulff} I told her, ummmm, yes.
[12:18] {wulff} She yelled at me for getting some TARP money! 
[12:19] {wulff} LOL
[12:19] {nemo} get rid of her
[12:20] {dino} ironically, the govt would have been better off spending that tarp money on puts
[12:20] {Threei}  lol
[12:20] {nemo} Yeah, but then they would have had to pay capital gains
[12:20] {dino} wou;d have made about 350 billion\
[12:21] {nemo} somebody would have bitched
[12:21] {dino} of course, politically that is "evil"
[12:22] {dino} i have to say, a year ago i never thought we would see 7200s again
[12:25] {Threei}  tide seems to turn
[12:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .05
[12:27] {Threei}  just aa scalp
[12:27] {Threei}  stop under .95
[12:29] {Threei}  no go
[12:30] {dino} obama speecg at 1:00 agaiin
[12:30] {nemo} RIMM bounce candidate 
[12:30] {Threei}  oh boy... what about this time?
[12:30] {nemo} huh?
[12:30] {dino} fiscal something or other
[12:31] {nemo} Ooohhhhhhh
[12:31] {nemo} deficits?  Stimulus? responsibility?  what?
[12:32] {wulff} basketball
[12:32] {nemo} he's giving a speech on basketball?
[12:32] {Threei}  trailing stop to .85 CAT
[12:33] {dino} another lecture i suppose
[12:37] {Threei}  PREVIEW: ATLANTA FED PRESIDENT DENNIS LOCKHART IS SCHEDULED TO SPEAK ON THE US ECONOMY BEGINNING AT 12:40PMET
[12:37] {Threei}  - audience Q&A is expected
[12:37] {Threei}  - reminder: last week Lockhart said recession will most likely continue through the first half of 2009; modest recovery is possible in second half of 2009, but any recovery faces numerous headwinds
[12:38] {Threei}  - Lower mortgage rates are aiding housing, although housing is still burdened by excess inventory.
[12:38] {Threei}  - Financial sector remains troubled, but there are modest signals that the sector is improving a bit.
[12:46] {Threei}  with all Picken's appearances on TV today, CLNE looks quite crappy
[12:48] {Threei}  dies already CAT
[12:48] {Threei}  -s
[12:48] {Threei}  stp can be trailed to .81
[12:49] {Threei}  not that it matters much vs .85... just playing by the book
[12:50] {Threei}  from pure theoretical point of view... as far as I understand, this is the first time Keynes theory is going to be fully tested in real world
[12:50] {Threei}  fascinating
[12:54] {Threei}  .50 loss is coming on CAT
[12:55] {Threei}  will trail stop to .65 after that
[12:57] {Threei}  US) HOUSE SPEAKER PELOSI: HOPES TO BRING MORTGAGE CRAMDOWN TO THE FLOOR OF THE HOUSE ON THURSDAY
[13:00] {Threei}  here we go CAT
[13:00] {Threei}  stop to .65
[13:00] {Threei}  cujo, you covered all or still got some?
[13:01] {Threei}  I think I am lone here
[13:01] {Threei}  alone
[13:01] {wulff} cujo at CAT
[13:02] {wulff} I have half lot
[13:02] {fernp} here I am. Not in CAT but reading you :)
[13:02] {Threei}  okay... I was looking for an excuse to fall asleep till tomorrow
[13:02] {Threei}  but no, wulff and fern had to ruin it for me
[13:03] {dino} .
[13:03] {wulff} good kitty
[13:03] {Threei}  very
[13:05] {dptl} whew..powere is back...good morning all
[13:05] {Threei}  C
[13:05] {Threei}  CNBC'S GASPARINO: SOURCES INDICATE A DEAL WITH THE US GOVT MAY COME AS EARLY AS TODAY OR TOMMOROW; AMOUNT TO CLOSE TO $40B
[13:05] {Threei}  dp :)
[13:06] {wulff} covered. later
[13:06] {wulff} oh TY
[13:06] {Threei}  welcome
[13:06] {Threei}  you got about 50 cents on this one?
[13:10] {Threei}  FED'S LOCKHART: SEE VERY LOW RISK OF HYPERINFLATION, FED MORE CONCERNED ABOUT INFLATION BEING 'TOO LOW' - Q&A
[13:10] {nemo} That's funny...I'm watching prices go up on food, and clothing
[13:11] {Threei}  - Notes will be difficult for China to increase consumption quickly
[13:11] {Threei}  - "worried" about commercial real estate
[13:19] {cujo} Vad, grat call on CAT.  Was away from Comp for a sec.  Got about +.45
[13:19] {cujo} got out  a little earlier than you
[13:20] {Threei}  wtg cujo
[13:20] {Threei}  great trade
[13:20] {cujo} took some time but well worth it. 
[13:21] {nemo} This cram down thing...when was the last time contract law was broken on a large scale?
[13:21] {tomg} does anyone know how to create a sound alert for Vad's highlighted calls?
[13:22] {cujo} right click onhis name
[13:22] {cujo} go to info
[13:22] {cujo} then the highlight tab
[13:22] {cujo} create a rule with his name in it
03[13:22] * Looking up tomg user info...
[13:22] {nemo} right click on the "#floor" icon above.  Then turn on "Beeping"
[13:22] {cujo} but will sound every time Vad says something
[13:23] {cujo} not just for calls...
[13:23] {Threei}  wow... they hid it well
[13:23] {Threei}  wouldn't even think to look for it in there
[13:23] {nemo} Yeah, it'll be ringing in your ear all day.  We need to create the sound effect of Vad patting himself on the back.
[13:24] {nemo} whoa...didn't realize what that was
[13:24] {tomg} ty, i was hoping there could be an alert for just the highlighted calls, for times when I'm away from the computer
[13:24] {dino} lol fiscal respojsibility speech. just doubled deficit and giving handouts all around
[13:24] {nemo} Vad will have to have a window just for calls
[13:25] {Threei}  tom
[13:25] {Threei}  what you can do is to set a sound for words
[13:25] {Threei}  long setup
[13:25] {Threei}  short setup
[13:26] {tomg} ah, ok, that might work
[13:26] {Threei}  won't work when I forget to use the script though
[13:29] {nemo} This must be what they talk about when they say private equity must help.  Either way, we pay...http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGqIiR1PCrq8
[13:30] {Threei}  PRESIDENT OBAMA REITERATES PLEDGE TO CUT DEFICIT IN HALF BY 2013, BUDGET TO BE SUBMITTED THIS WEEK WILL LOOK FORWARD 10 YEARS
[13:30] {Threei}  that's serious crystal ball they use in white house
[13:31] {nemo} crystal meth I think
[13:32] {Threei}  that was uncarachteristically brief
[13:33] {cujo} cheerleaders stayed home this time...
[13:33] {dino} this guy hurts the markets more than bush did
[13:44] {Threei}  done with CAT
[13:54] {nemo} Hello...am I back Magoo?
[13:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  UAUA  .5o break if stays above .45
[13:54] {magoo} 'yup
[14:00] {wulff} are you calling a break of the high of the day?
[14:00] {Threei}  invalidated
[14:02] {Threei}  if we get severe market selling, watching NVDA for short, .25 trigger
[14:03] {Threei}  invalidation above .35
[14:04] {nemo} full lot
[14:06] {wulff} UAUA!
[14:06] {wulff} stupid
[14:11] {Threei}  {UAUA} why are you calling me stupid
[14:16] {nemo} what just happened in financials?
[14:16] {magoo} any chance this mkt could close flat?
[14:17] {Threei}  easy
[14:17] {Threei}  just -130 down
[14:17] {Threei}  WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY REITERATES THAT THE ADMINISTRATION BELIEVES A PRIVATELY HELD BANKING SECTOR IS THE BEST WAY FORWARD
[14:18] {dino}   that is going to getb old fast
[14:18] {Threei}  exactly
[14:18] {Threei}  notice also this smooth way to avoid direct answer
[14:19] {Threei}  there is always a room left for "we don't want to but we have to"
[14:19] {Threei}  ADMINISTRATION BELIEVES A PRIVATELY HELD BANKING SYSTEM REGULATED BY THE FED IS THE BEST WAY FORWARD
[14:19] {Threei}  regulated by the Fed, eh
[14:19] {cujo} ugh
[14:19] {cujo} that sounds fun
[14:19] {cujo} will be buying gold
[14:20] {Threei}  all of it?
[14:20] {cujo} ha, yes.  every last piece.  
[14:20] {Threei}  - asked about Citigroup, says will not comment on individual banks
[14:30] {magoo} vad..what spike we need to bring in fliuppers to long side?
[14:30] {dino} tequilla type
[14:31] {cujo} did someone say tequilla...?
[14:31] {nemo} Who gets the worm?
[14:31] {cujo} tequila doesn't have worm..  
[14:31] {nemo} Yeah, one of them does
[14:32] {Threei}  can't answer like this mags
[14:32] {cujo} mezcal is the one that has the worm
[14:32] {nemo} or did.  I haven't spoken with Tequilla in years.  Me and Jack Daniels haven't spoken since college
[14:32] {Threei}  we need something more substantial than "we don't want to nationalize the banks"
[14:32] {Threei}  this is bs
[14:32] {nemo} Welcome to politics
[14:32] {Threei}  and all spikes on these statements will get faded
[14:33] {Threei}  AIG
[14:33] {Threei}  REPORTEDLY IN DISCUSSIONS WITH GOVT FOR ADDITIONAL FUNDS - CNBC
[14:33] {cujo} diff type of drink, kinda like tequila though...
[14:33] {Threei}  my feeling is,
[14:33] {dino} they do not have a plan, that is the problem. the easy way out was m2m reform based on cash flows....they said no to it
[14:33] {Threei}  until market hears something of substance from these guys
[14:34] {Threei}  and decides it likes it,
[14:34] {Threei}  no rally will be sustainable
[14:34] {dino} aig, now what are we up to 120 billion or so
[14:34] {Threei}  that's what market hates dino, I agree
[14:34] {Threei}  no plan,
[14:34] {Threei}  no details,
[14:34] {Threei}  no hint that they know what they are doing,
[14:34] {Threei}  markert sees a bunch of scared kids
[14:34] {dino} they don''t want to let the system fix itself
[14:35] {Threei}  who throw spagettin at the wall and watch if anything sticks
[14:36] {dino} you must accept the pain or it will last much longer and cost much more. already citi is at something like 80 billion, when does this nonsense end? in every other business the stockholders get wiped out
[14:36] {Threei}  when techs crashed in 2000,
[14:36] {Threei}  how come no bailouts were even contemlated?
[14:37] {Threei}  no one even thought of saving any of them
[14:37] {Threei}  and more importantly,
[14:37] {Threei}  if they tried,
[14:37] {Threei}  would any of those "rescued" companies survive anyway?
[14:37] {dino} nope
[14:37] {Threei}  seems to be painfully obvious that they wouldn't
[14:38] {Threei}  I don't see how this is principally different
[14:38] {Threei}  throw whatever money you want at them,
[14:38] {Threei}  if they are insolvent, they are insolvent
[14:38] {Threei}  toxic assets are not going anywhere
[14:38] {cujo} well, to be devils advocate, our economy didn't depend on a lot of the .coms making it through the crash.  
[14:38] {dino} well, some major newspaper just filed, whats the difference.
[14:38] {Threei}  no, not to such degree
[14:39] {Threei}  but the point is,
[14:39] {Threei}  these measures can't save them anyway, just as they wouldn't save techs
[14:39] {dino} also, look now they talk of bankruptcy loans for gm, after wasting 30+ billion
[14:39] {cujo} yeah, good money on bad. 
[14:39] {Threei}  so, we are going in the direction of inevitable crash for them anyway,
[14:40] {Threei}  only we burn incredible amount of money in the process
[14:40] {Threei}  and the worse yet,
[14:40] {dino} you get the carrot
[14:40] {Threei}  we are reworking the very fabric of the society and psychology of ther public
[14:41] {Threei}  What was it that undermined the economic structure of the Soviet Union?
[14:41] {Threei}  absence of motivation to work
[14:41] {dino} if it wasn't an election year in sept. when this all started, they would have went into bankruptcy before throwing all the hundreds of billions around
[14:41] {Threei}  system where better work was not better rewarded,
[14:41] {cujo} like unions in the US...
[14:41] {Threei}  laziness was not punished
[14:42] {Threei}  so people pretended they worked while state pretended it paid
[14:42] {nemo} which was the famous saying
[14:43] {Threei}  my rant for the day is over
[14:43] {cujo} i can take over if you want...
[14:43] {Threei}  comrade magoo has the tribune
[14:43] {Threei}  or comrade cujo
[14:43] {nemo} You moved here just to go through it all over again
[14:44] {Threei}  no kidding, lol
[14:44] {Threei}  what's next, Antarctica?
[14:44] {cujo} COMMUNISM: You have two cows. The government takes both and gives you spoiled milk.
[14:44] {dino} lol
[14:44] {dawg} jeeeee...sus christ RIMM scalp in .35 out .47 still goin'
[14:44] {Threei}  if penguins start building socialism, what do I do next?
[14:45] {nemo} get a tux?
[14:47] {Threei}  TREASURY WILL BEGIN STRESS TESTS ON FEB 25 WITH "AN AGRESSIVE TIME TABLE" - CNBC'S LIESMAN
[14:48] {nemo} Folks, the trader tax has been inserted in the Universal Health Care Bill
[14:48] {Threei}  dawg... careful with RIMM scalps on a ,long side
[14:49] {Threei}  looks like we are headed for the crash
[14:49] {dawg} OK thanks Vad done for now
[14:49] {Threei}  US SENATOR LEVIN: PLANS TO INTRODUCE BILL TO TIGHTEN OVERSIGN OF PENTAGON WEAPONS PROGRAMS
[14:49] {Threei}  not saying they are impossible, just keep size to a min
[14:50] {Threei}  and let it slide farther than you normally would before trying entry
[14:50] {dawg} thanks Vad 
[14:54] {Threei}  see what I mean?
[14:54] {Threei}  straight down through the day low, no slightest attempt to bounce
[14:54] {Threei}  normally you would try to get in around .15
[14:55] {Threei}  in this case you'd better wait for another 10-15 cents down
[14:55] {Threei}  and even that ws what, 10 centss bounce
[14:55] {dawg} k
[15:00] {fernp} NVDA short w/stop above .36?
[15:00] {Threei}  with next wave of market selling, worth a try
[15:12] {cujo} ss CAT .30
[15:12] {cujo} stop at .46
[15:12] {nemo} CAT's going up
[15:12] {cujo} thanks...
[15:13] {cujo} stpd
[15:13] {cujo} ugh
[15:14] {cujo} stpd = stopped
[15:21] {Threei}  reletnless
[15:24] {nemo} CALLING THE PPT!!!!
[15:26] {dino}  ugly days
[15:26] {larisa} Paulson starting to look good to me. At least he treid to explain things :)
[15:26] {Threei}  lol
[15:26] {Threei}  Terrific Tim is MIA
[15:27] {nemo} It's the end of the world as we know it...and Iiiiiii feeeeeelllll fine.....
[15:28] {dino} -14.4% dji since 02/09/09; -12% s/p; -12% ndx
[15:36] {Threei}  hey, at least we have consistency across the board
[15:36] {nemo} Yeah, Red is dead
[15:41] {nemo} So, Larisa,,,green today?
[15:41] {Threei}  lol
[15:41] {Threei}  -220
[15:41] {Threei}  am I ever so glad I am staying very conservative day after day
[15:41] {Threei}  a few small stops, nice winst on RIMM and CAT
[15:41] {Threei}  keep day positive
[15:42] {Threei}  nothing outstanding but hell
[15:43] {larisa} I forgot how green looks nemo :)
[15:43] {Threei}  ah come on, we had green Fri
[15:44] {nemo} Did we...so long ago
[15:44] {Threei}  you don't mean your meory span doesn't go that far, do you
[15:44] {nemo} vodka
[15:44] {dino} no green friday
[15:44] {Threei}  ok, on NASDAQ
[15:45] {dino} ok 
[15:45] {Threei}  :)
[15:45] {larisa} lol
[15:45] {nemo} friggin' optimists
[15:45] {Threei}  see how these "no nationalization" talks lose their power in a hurry?
[15:45] {Threei}  jawboning will get you just so far
06[15:45] * nemo slaps magoo around a bit with a large with a screaming alarm clock
[15:46] {Threei}  also... don't you think that we can safely dismiss conspiracies about giverment's ability to manipulate markets?
[15:47] {Threei}  I mean, if they really could... would we witness this murderous reaction on all latest dovt actions?
[15:47] {nemo} Wall Street's doin' it to get better prices :)
[15:47] {Threei}  uhhu
[15:47] {nemo} kidding
[15:47] {Threei}  I know
[15:47] {Threei}  I would write an article on manipulation
[15:48] {Threei}  but for some reason this topic invokes so much anger is conspirasy theorists
[15:48] {Threei}  is = in
[15:48] {larisa} Geithner will be silent until next year.. see if it affects the market :)
[15:48] {Threei}  I just don't want to waste my time on deleting angry posts
[15:48] {Threei}  yeah, maybe they meant it after all, eh
[15:48] {Threei}  when said next year
06[15:50] * Threei is bidding RIMM at $9
[15:50] {Threei}  who knows, maybe I'll get my fill this week
[15:50] {nemo} that mexican accent again
[15:51] {Threei}  no, that would be "pheel"
[15:51] {Threei}  or pheal
[15:51] {dino} turnaround tuesday coming up
[15:52] {Threei}  why?
[15:52] {nemo} turndown tuesday
[15:52] {dino} no other reason than "why not"
[15:52] {larisa} do not ask why, lets believe him :)
[15:52] {Threei}  oh
[15:52] {Threei}  I don't mind
[15:52] {Threei}  for a change I'd be glad to play long
[15:52] {cosmo} i believe
[15:52] {dino} 740 s/p nov lows
[15:52] {cosmo} :)
[15:53] {dino} ndx still 108 pts above
[15:53] {nemo} Actually, look at how many companies aren't at 52 week lows.  
[15:54] {Threei}  US TREASURY DECLINES COMMENT ON ADDITIONAL GOVT AID FOR AIG
[15:54] {Threei}  why?
[15:54] {nemo} We don't need to know
[15:54] {Threei}  and are not supposed to ask?
[15:54] {nemo} Yes comrade
[15:54] {nemo} to Dherzinski with you
[15:55] {dino} well, back to the 300 pt daily range
[15:56] {nemo} I hear Lubyanka has nice drapes
[15:56] {larisa} nemo, you are overeducated :)
[15:56] {Threei}  no kidding, lol
[15:56] {dptl} have a good evening all
[15:56] {nemo} Spend too much time with Ruskies
[15:56] {larisa} bye dp
[15:56] {Threei}  take care dp
[15:57] {dino} cya dp
[15:57] {nemo} That was a quiet 250 points down
[15:57] {Threei}  yeah
[15:57] {Threei}  no panic
[15:57] {Threei}  no huge volume
[15:58] {Threei}  no sharp selloff
[15:58] {Threei}  what does it tell us?
[15:58] {nemo} Yeah, nobody knows and it ain't worth guessin'
[15:58] {cosmo} no capit. yet
[15:58] {Threei}  yup... it's far from over
[15:58] {nemo} Great...
[15:59] {Threei}  orderly liquidiation
[15:59] {nemo} Parachutes and hemmrhoid pillows
[15:59] {Threei}  women and children first to the exit
[15:59] {Threei}  nothing to see here, move away
[15:59] {nemo} Nope...me first
[16:00] {Threei}  okay guys
[16:00] {Threei}  thank you all
[16:00] {nemo} Well Mr. Threei, how was the play?
[16:00] {Threei}  have a good evening
[16:00] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[16:00] {larisa} later all
[16:00] {nemo} P&Q
[16:00] {vint} bye guys, see u all tomorrow
[16:00] {fernp} good evening all